Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 22.993459 27.566392 32.596393 38.511181 45.246301 52.647007 61.363266
2025-07-06 15.066527 20.702873 27.557373 36.383494 47.314525 60.272045 76.645329
2025-07-13 11.881239 18.135390 26.336512 37.609159 52.405507 70.855967 95.256655
2025-07-20 9.675159 16.200155 25.330349 38.581958 56.813412 80.473804 112.884059
2025-07-27 8.169717 14.870841 24.801778 39.906196 61.523150 90.513445 131.368219
2025-08-03 6.926825 13.655125 24.177909 40.881946 65.647262 99.832047 149.206495
2025-08-10 5.618073 12.050493 22.689200 40.325500 67.405976 105.855043 162.720452
2025-08-17 4.760410 11.036656 21.955602 40.763090 70.532888 113.829472 179.156874
2025-08-24 3.954512 9.941557 20.910063 40.540248 72.553603 120.210948 193.508154
2025-08-31 3.130135 8.617585 19.258978 39.103475 72.501715 123.440991 203.345008
2025-09-07 2.705024 8.031305 18.849952 39.697661 75.661492 131.553247 220.560304
2025-09-14 2.181485 7.092050 17.625859 38.707486 76.109142 135.473013 231.611158
2025-09-21 1.904679 6.716067 17.543165 39.927439 80.593044 146.284027 254.160034
2025-09-28 1.397217 5.588519 15.728895 37.724487 79.083408 147.601853 262.366483
2025-10-05 1.220475 5.317645 15.716958 38.984834 83.703062 158.968889 286.592873
2025-10-12 1.054136 5.020343 15.590657 39.985599 87.891542 169.779069 310.295151
2025-10-19 0.929919 4.815020 15.644587 41.347741 92.803148 181.969216 336.585514
2025-10-26 0.806077 4.563404 15.539708 42.351253 97.083631 193.242735 361.740597
2025-11-02 0.640804 4.080280 14.751586 41.778992 98.305776 199.313302 378.586527
2025-11-09 0.538371 3.798409 14.443515 42.229023 101.509163 208.905123 401.497287
2025-11-16 0.433698 3.446845 13.870272 41.999849 103.333457 216.119461 420.640990
2025-11-23 0.320312 2.970218 12.823564 40.522073 102.519589 218.573610 431.814265
2025-11-30 0.269866 2.792509 12.650251 41.133254 106.006662 228.875477 456.593651